CoinVerdict
中文 Scoreboard

TON / The Verdict

generated 2026-07-15 14:00 UTC
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-07-15 — latest verdict → TON
The Verdict
Underweight

TON shows weak medium-term momentum and risk-off sentiment

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-15 14:00 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bearish C
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Bearish C
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Insufficient data
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
6W–1L–10P · 11 neutral · since 2026-07-15
95% CI 48.7–97.4% · n=7 · early sample
2026-09-05 — Neutral · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-12
stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-09-01 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-08
2026-08-31 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-07
2026-08-30 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-06
2026-08-29 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-29 · TON price $1.4825 · BTC $77872.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-05 · TON price $1.5065 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-0.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-28 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-28 · TON price $1.5105 · BTC $80168.1
Settled (T+8d)
2026-09-05 · TON price $1.5065 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
+0.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-27 · TON price $1.5005 · BTC $78922
Settled (T+9d)
2026-09-05 · TON price $1.5065 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-0.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-25 · TON price $1.531 · BTC $78968.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-01 · TON price $1.4965 · BTC $78717.1
vs BTC
-1.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-24 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-24 · TON price $1.5475 · BTC $77645.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-31 · TON price $1.4735 · BTC $77473.2
vs BTC
-4.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-23 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-23 · TON price $1.525 · BTC $77094.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-30 · TON price $1.479 · BTC $78171.7
vs BTC
-4.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-20 — Underweight — -10.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-20 · TON price $1.486 · BTC $69631.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-27 · TON price $1.5005 · BTC $78922
vs BTC
-10.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-16 — Neutral — -15.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-16 · TON price $1.4775 · BTC $63070.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-23 · TON price $1.525 · BTC $77094.1
vs BTC
-15.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-15 — Underweight — -15.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-15 · TON price $1.472 · BTC $63021.6
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-23 · TON price $1.525 · BTC $77094.1
vs BTC
-15.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-14 — Underweight — -14.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-14 · TON price $1.4725 · BTC $63504.5
Settled (T+9d)
2026-08-23 · TON price $1.525 · BTC $77094.1
vs BTC
-14.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-13 · TON price $1.479 · BTC $63588.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-20 · TON price $1.486 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-8.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-10 — Neutral — — — VOID
stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-09 · TON price $1.4835 · BTC $64963.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-16 · TON price $1.4775 · BTC $63070.5
vs BTC
+2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-08 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-08 · TON price $1.479 · BTC $64896.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-15 · TON price $1.472 · BTC $63021.6
vs BTC
+2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-07 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-07 · TON price $1.482 · BTC $64381
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-14 · TON price $1.4725 · BTC $63504.5
vs BTC
+0.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-05 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-05 · TON price $1.502 · BTC $64023.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-12 · TON price $1.469 · BTC $63546
vs BTC
-1.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-04 — Neutral — -3.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-04 · TON price $1.5105 · BTC $63558.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-11 · TON price $1.4675 · BTC $63941.5
vs BTC
-3.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-03 — Neutral — -5.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-03 · TON price $1.511 · BTC $63435.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-10 · TON price $1.466 · BTC $65054
vs BTC
-5.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Overweight → Neutral
2026-08-02 — Overweight — -4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-02 · TON price $1.496 · BTC $62914.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-09 · TON price $1.4835 · BTC $64963.4
vs BTC
-4.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Overweight
2026-08-01 — Neutral — -4.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-01 · TON price $1.5005 · BTC $62954.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-08 · TON price $1.479 · BTC $64896.5
vs BTC
-4.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-31 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-31 · TON price $1.5135 · BTC $63805
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-07 · TON price $1.482 · BTC $64381
vs BTC
-3.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-30 — Neutral — -2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-30 · TON price $1.507 · BTC $64044.7
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-07 · TON price $1.482 · BTC $64381
vs BTC
-2.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-29 — Neutral — -2.0% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-29 · TON price $1.533 · BTC $64051
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-05 · TON price $1.502 · BTC $64023.8
vs BTC
-2.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-28 · TON price $1.5295 · BTC $63644.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-04 · TON price $1.5105 · BTC $63558.1
vs BTC
-1.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-27 — Neutral — -0.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-27 · TON price $1.5555 · BTC $65216
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-03 · TON price $1.511 · BTC $63435.7
vs BTC
-0.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-26 · TON price $1.557 · BTC $64416
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-02 · TON price $1.496 · BTC $62914.5
vs BTC
-1.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-25 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-25 · TON price $1.522 · BTC $64141.3
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-01 · TON price $1.5005 · BTC $62954.5
vs BTC
+0.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-24 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-24 · TON price $1.5265 · BTC $64928
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-31 · TON price $1.5135 · BTC $64779.5
vs BTC
-0.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-23 — Neutral — +0.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-23 · TON price $1.5555 · BTC $66209
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-30 · TON price $1.507 · BTC $64044.7
vs BTC
+0.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-21 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-07-20 — Neutral — — — VOID
stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-07-17 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-07-16 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-07-15 — Underweight — — — VOID

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bull evidence
Bear evidence ✓ aligns with this verdict

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
60d high2.28 -30.3%
60d low1.44 +10.4%
RSI(14)41.9
30d change -7.3%

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 0 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

Momentum is soft: RSI is below neutral, price trails SMA50, and 30-day performance is negative; MACD remains positive but is contracting.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

Sentiment is risk-off, with Extreme Fear, sub-balanced taker flow, and only modest long-account skew.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

Headlines are broad crypto-market developments with no clear TON-specific catalyst or impairment.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

The data pack provides no TON-specific fundamental, valuation, adoption, or network-activity metrics.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
07310c480fbbfdc0a29429b8ac39643edc288a53cee392ba7eec71b1b3c7ea0d
UTC date
2026-07-15
Chain head
fe6d19bbd0dec4d03a8b201098fd67ad3bf99835727f3053ccd256283e21cc8a

Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain

SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.

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