ORDI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
ORDI trades at $3.546 as bearish moving-average structure clashes with RSI 51.6
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-20 07:43 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Overweight — -3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-28 — Overweight — -4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-27 — Overweight — -6.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — -6.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — -4.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Neutral — -3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — -8.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — +2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Overweight — +3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Neutral — -1.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — +0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +8.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — +6.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Neutral — +2.3% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Neutral — +0.7% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Neutral — -0.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -7.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Overweight — -15.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Overweight — -5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Neutral — +3.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a decisive reclaim of $4.395; an expanding MACD histogram from +0.00405 while holding above the breakout would further confirm reversal.. Cautious read: a break below $2.72 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your strongest exhibit is price above the SMAs, and that’s exactly where the trap is.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your strongest exhibit is price above the SMAs, and that’s exactly where the trap is. Key support to defend sits near $2.72. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: the SMA50 is 4.0% below the SMA200. But ORDI is already up 6.9% over 30 days, sits above every listed moving average, and RSI at 51.6 says this is a reset—not a euphoric blowoff priced for perfection.
Leo, your strongest exhibit is price above the SMAs, and that’s exactly where the trap is. The SMA50-versus-SMA200 bearish structure, contracting MACD at +0.00405, taker buy/sell at 0.92, and a close 19.4% below the $4.395 high say the bounce has weak sponsorship.
· Fear&Greed 29 could trigger a contrarian squeeze
· Price remains above SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200
· 30-day momentum is still positive at 6.9%
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a decisive reclaim of $4.395; an expanding MACD histogram from +0.00405 while holding above the breakout would further confirm reversal.
Mara, you’re treating a 0.92 taker ratio like a death certificate, but Fear&Greed at 29 means sellers are already emotionally exhausted. A 6.9% 30-day gain while fear persists is the kind of stealth bid bears routinely ignore.
Leo, fear doesn’t equal exhaustion when long accounts still outnumber shorts at 53.3%. Your stealth bid has produced only a 0.6% seven-day gain and remains trapped well below $4.395.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating a 0.92 taker ratio like a death certificate, but Fear&Greed at 29 means sellers are already emotionally exhausted. A 6.9% 30-day gain while fear persists is the kind of stealth bid bears routinely ignore.
Leo, fear doesn’t equal exhaustion when long accounts still outnumber shorts at 53.3%. Your stealth bid has produced only a 0.6% seven-day gain and remains trapped well below $4.395.
Leo, positioning isn’t crowded enough for a clean contrarian squeeze, but it is tilted long enough to provide fuel on a drop. With taker buy/sell at 0.92, aggressive flow currently favors sellers.
Mara’s right on the regime: bitcoin under $64,000 amid the oil bounce and AI selloff is a liquidity headwind. ORDI can rally inside that storm, but the burden is on the bulls to reclaim the prior range.
I award the ruling to the bears, based decisively on the 4.0% bearish SMA50/SMA200 spread reinforced by a 0.92 taker buy/sell ratio. I would overturn this call only if ORDI reclaims $4.395, or if MACD histogram expands materially from the current +0.00405 while price holds above that breakout.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I see a short-term recovery above SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, but the SMA50 sits 4.0% below SMA200 and MACD histogram is contracting at +0.00405. Direction: mixed-to-bearish; evidence families: moving averages, RSI, MACD, multi-horizon returns, support/resistance; conflicts: price is above key SMAs while the longer structure remains bearish; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed at 29 gives contrarians something to work with, but longs still hold 53.3% of accounts, the L/S ratio is 1.14, and taker buy/sell is only 0.92. Direction: bearish; evidence families: fear gauge, account positioning, taker flow; conflicts: broad fear versus mildly long positioning; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The ORDI headlines are packed with 100x fantasies and bullish prediction pieces, but they offer no hard catalyst in this data pack. Meanwhile, bitcoin is under pressure below $64,000 as oil rebounds and the AI selloff lingers—hardly a friendly tape for speculative beta.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I have no token-economics or valuation metrics here that justify a months-long fundamental thesis. The available evidence is narrative promotion around Ordinals and BRC-20, not cash flow, supply, adoption, or network data.
1baf26d2cf8ee22aa8ea2887af613b23bfd771a9d5444623d573d7d1589c3836bb295d7aae9e558a346e804945fde08e4613bfb70347c2a2bf2fe08f555e4fc6Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25